Market in Review

This is the start of my weekly market reviews for my trading journal. This is my digital watering hole, where I can celebrate wins and commiserate losses. It’s where I’ll work hard to figure out my new trading strategy and find opportunities in the market. I’m an old trader, definitely not a bold trader.

What a week! I sold my stock holding in NVDA for a 20% profit and closed out all my AMD and COST calls. I made 68% profit each for those option trades. Options trading is insane and you can make sick money with it. Of course, you can lose sick money with it too.

I’m glad I sold all my COST calls right before earnings. I was planning on holding through earnings but I looked at the chart and thought COST’s long-term price trend was being too good to be true, so I sold. My intuition paid off because COST sold off after a revenue miss.

Remember: Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered.

When in doubt take profit, or sell half. I took profit.

Anyway, it was a good week to add money to the war chest. I expect this Bull Market to continue but it’s starting to feel tired. Powell spoke this week and it’s starting to look like we’ll have a soft landing. What remains to be seen is if the markets will continue to race higher or if it will start easing its way into the summer.

The trick is to learn to trade in all kinds of market conditions and be humble.

Gold is at an all-time high

I’m going to start keeping track of my weekly gold and silver model updates. I should’ve been keeping track of how good (or bad) my forecasting models have been performing but life got in the way. Starting with this review I’m going to keep an eye on them.

I do remember last week’s prediction for Gold was to close higher but it shot up, which was pretty close to the swing high target. It looks like Gold is becoming more volatile and that could mean inflation or a recession is being priced in. I’m going to keep an eye on the new gold price forecasts and try to divine the nature of the market.

Silver is range riding

Silver, once the darling of stackers everywhere (and my favorite for coins), is finally moving higher. The previous week’s silver price forecast was for silver to head higher, which it has.

The question is just how far will it go? I don’t trade these assets like I would stocks (or options now), but I keep an eye on them for my coin collection.

Next Trading Week

I took today (Friday) off to relax after a stressful week and I have nothing front and center on my desk yet. I might start experimenting with buying a long-dated put and selling weekly puts on the same asset. I’m not sure what asset yet but I do know that I’ll be experimenting with different option strategies as I work out the kinks and learn how to manage risk vs reward.

Disclosure: Long Gold and Silver coins, and a bunch of long-term holdings.