Is NVDA Peaking?

Is NVDA peaking? From today’s chart, it looks like it made a hammer on lower volume, so your guess is as good as any despite what CEO Jensen Haung thinks. Sure NVIDIA’s guidance is rosy and very positive, they believe that this trend will continue for the next 5 years at least!

My question is, are you surprised by his sentiment? I mean everyone is upgrading the stock to crazy price targets because NVIDIA had a blowout quarter, of course, this will continue ad infinitum. Everything is awesome until one day it isn’t anymore.

I started this blog to predict stock market turns using Machine Learning and AI, but I found out that this can’t work reliably. The only way to make money in the markets is in two ways: find mispriced assets and bet accordingly, or buy for the long term and let it grow over time.

I do like to exploit people’s greed and fear these days and I watch a market action like a hawk. I like to read candlestick charts and volume because both convey a lot of information to me in a fast way. I like to buy high and sell higher because people don’t believe that a stock at an all-time high can go higher. They throw caution to the wind when it does and drop big money into a bet they feel they can’t lose. Then they lose, maybe not right away but if they get caught up in the hype the will.

In the end, every high-flying stock falls back to reality. If you’re smart (and I’m not) you code up systems and write all fancy mathematical models to make predictions. I believe it’s a helluva lot easier to just read the tape and look at the charts.

A raging stock market is all fun and games and sick money will be made until one day it stops. When that happens, who will pick up the check?