This chart paints a stark picture of the United States’ fiscal reality. The federal debt, measured as a percentage of GDP, has climbed to concerning levels, nearing 120%. Historically, such high debt-to-GDP ratios have been rare and often signal a tipping point for economic instability. While debt financing can be a useful tool for stimulating growth during downturns, the consistent rise of federal debt beyond sustainable thresholds highlights a deeper systemic issue. Keynesian economic principles advocate for deficit spending to counter recessions, but the persistent reliance on this approach, even in periods of recovery, has led to an erosion of fiscal discipline. ...

Generated from the St Louis Fed data and going back to 1988 when I became a voter. It’s interesting to see how when mortgage rates come down, median house prices rise. So what’s happening post 2020? The interest rise should push median prices lower but it’s not budging. Could it be Boomer related? I don’t know why it’s happening but this I know: young people are pissed because they can’t afford to buy a house. ...

First hand experience. I lost weight in Europe eating the same amount of food and snacks. There’s something wrong in our country’s food system. It needs to be fixed, but my guess is that it’s not profitable enough to do so.

My father gave me this watch years ago and before he died. It’s nothing flashy but a good-looking low-cost mechanical watch that you can get on Amazon. For some strange reason, I’m rebelling against iWatches and the need to always charge them up. Granted, I can’t measure my resting heart rate but these watches make me happy.

I generated another economic data mashup, this time looking at the jobless rates vs household debt. It appears there is a weak correlation (my best guess) between the jobless rate and taking on debt. Makes sense, people will borrow more or lived off borrowed money when they lose their jobs. This is one to watch for sure.

Found this neat graphic on Reddit about the various cost of living ranges throughout the USA. Of course, everything outside of the metro areas cost less but at what expense? We’ve always talked about moving out of NJ once the kids are in or out of college but where else would we get the quality of life we want to maintain?

The 2-year/10-year spread is what I always look to prepare for a recession. I don’t believe in “soft landings” but I do believe financial chicanery can postpone a recession. With Trump getting back into office he’ll pursue cutting interest rates. That’ll give the economy a jolt in the arm until inflation catches up. So who knows when the recession will happen, but it will. Of course, it’s easy for me to say that a recession will happen after a big Bull Market run, just like it’s easy to say that a Bull Market will happen right after a Bear Market. ...

I had a big epiphany in the last half of the year (2024) when I started selling option premium. I mostly sold covered calls and cash-secured puts and focused on the weekly expirations. I’ve been keeping the risk very low and not using any margin. I’ve been assigned 6 times in the last 6 months, 4 for puts and 2 for covered calls. This has caused me to buy 1,000 shares of SMH and 500 of IWM, so it cost me a pretty penny in my trading account. Yet, despite this I have 41 winning trades and 7 losing trades. That’s over an 85% win rate. ...

Just a quick update on what I’ve been up to lately. First, I got laid off, which pushed me into an early retirement. That’s okay—it’s the perfect opportunity to strike out on my own again. Second, I’ve been diving into the options market and have found it to be quite profitable. I rarely buy calls or puts because, in my view, that’s pure speculative gambling. Instead, I’ve been selling options—primarily cash-secured puts and covered calls. So far, this strategy has been working well. Why be the gambler when you can be the house? ...

A few things, not that my zero readers care, but both my work life and personal life have been busy. That’s good and bad in many ways but my hard work over the years is starting to snowball. The best thing I’ve ever done in my life is go to #engineering school and learn how to trade. I’m not the best trader but I’m good at finding opportunities. Whether that’s in #realestate, the markets, or in my personal life. ...