A few things, not that my zero readers care, but both my work life and personal life have been busy. That’s good and bad in many ways but my hard work over the years is starting to snowball. The best thing I’ve ever done in my life is go to #engineering school and learn how to trade. I’m not the best trader but I’m good at finding opportunities. Whether that’s in #realestate, the markets, or in my personal life. ...
My plan is to stay out of the market today. There was some violent sell off on Friday in the semiconductors. All the stocks and ETFs I follow sold off and there were a lot of shooting starts or bearish engulfing candles. Several of the indices are looking tired too, the S&P500 has a bearish engulfing candle as well. But MSFT is hanging in there, that’s one that I want to bet on for the long term and I might be increasing my long term holdings of it. ...
Trade log star date March 1, 2024. Today I opened my first option trade in a long time. Yes, I own the covered call writing ETF’s QYLD and RYLD, but this was my first call option in two decades. Why did I do this? Simple, because “stonks” go up, at least in a strong bull market. There’s such a market euphoria right now that people are blindly throwing money at AMD, NVDA, and host of other shit related AI stocks that there are new all-time highs being made daily. ...
Is NVDA peaking? From today’s chart, it looks like it made a hammer on lower volume, so your guess is as good as any despite what CEO Jensen Haung thinks. Sure NVIDIA’s guidance is rosy and very positive, they believe that this trend will continue for the next 5 years at least! My question is, are you surprised by his sentiment? I mean everyone is upgrading the stock to crazy price targets because NVIDIA had a blowout quarter, of course, this will continue ad infinitum. Everything is awesome until one day it isn’t anymore. ...
There are a few rules I follow religiously if I’m focusing on trading a short term horizon. I always sell half when I had an amazing run and let the other half run, and I always reduce risk right befor a stock’s earning call; even if the call is expected to be good. I ended up closing all my NVDA positions on Tuesday. In the case of NVDA’s earnings yesterday, all evidence was pointing to a great earnings call and they delievered. NVDA earnings beat everything forecasted and they gave some strong guidance for the quarter ahead. As I write this post, it’s trading up almost $100 in the pre-market. ...
I think the AI hype is catching up with momentum and trend traders. Everyone was (is) looking for the next best NVDA opportunity so they latched onto SMCI. Honesty, I have no idea what SMCI does but the market gossip/chatter was that it does “AI” and is into computer hardware. SMCI came across one of my “all time high after market close” scanners and I checked it out. It was doing pretty well before the “AI bros” got a hold of it and then it went price parabolic. It was going “to the moon” because people thought it had something to do with AI. Hint: It doesn’t. ...
Here’s one from the “if it has AI inside, it’s going to the moon” file. SMCI hit an all time high yesterday after hitting successive all time highs. It’s going to open probably higher than its close at $880.55 yesterday, but is it still a buy? According to Yahoo Finance it might be: On the other hand, it’s possible that the company is still in the early stages of benefiting from powerful long-term demand tailwinds thanks to AI. With Supermicro valued at roughly $49 billion, the stock could still have big upside potential if artificial intelligence continues to power rapid sales and earnings growth. Shares have become riskier and could be volatile, but the stars could be aligning for the company to continue crushing expectations. ...
It looks like the Generative AI market finally caught up with ARM, or rather the Momentum and Trend Bros got a hold of it. Yes, ARM hit a new all time high and that’s exactly what I want to see after an IPO. ARM IPO’d back in September 2023 and starting a slight upward trend in November. Add in the NVDA craziness and “AI this” and “AI that”, it’s no wonder ARM is going to the moon. ...
David Einhorn, President of Greenlight Capital is whining about the millions of passive investors out there. They’re mucking up his returns! How dare they! (Greenlight) It is no longer going to pay 10 times earnings for a stock expecting earnings to get 15% better and receive a 13-times-earnings multiple allowing Greenlight to make 50% over a year and a half. That’s because with the rise of passive investing, “there’s nobody who is going to pay attention to notice the earnings were 15% better … if nobody notices, nobody’s there, nobody’s going to buy, nobody’s going to care,” Einhorn said. - via Marketwatch ...
I was reading the news this morning about how AMD is getting more investor’s interest as a competitor to NVDA’s GPU chips. This always happens when a momentum/trend darling gets too expensive or too crazy for the smaller boys to handle. NVDA is in squarely in the hands of the big boy gamblers and if you can’t run with them dawgs, you better go find something else to trade. Hello AMD! ...