I dabbled in the AAII.com screens for a bit this year and bought AIRT on 11/17/09 after it showed up on the Grahman Enterprising screen. I figured it was worth a shot. I sold that POS on 12/28/09 for a stinking 6.73% loss. It wasn't a trend play but more of a position play that didn't pan out. Lesson learned, this screen is for suckers and not for me. ...
The Aussie Dollar broke its trend, according to my system on December 16, 2009. This coupled with the recent breakdown of Gold makes me wonder if the shiny stuff is taking a breather or the global economy is truly in the mend. I don’t care anymore, I just care about riding a trend, taking a chunk out of it, and then saying goodbye when it goes bad. Anyway, I'm outta here for the year! Happy New Year! See you in 2010. ...
Yeah, I still use TraderXL Pro for a bunch of my data manipulation and technical analysis stuff. I use it to download data and run macros through it, macros that I design and then use in my trading screen. After my fucked up 2009 trading year, I had to revamp my entire arsenal of macros and screens for a brighter and more profitable future, I hope. Anyway, below is one of the many macros I use in TraderXL Pro for generating an automatic stop loss using and Average True Range (ATR) function. I then suck this data into my trading screen, and through the use of other magical macros. I then determine if I have to move my stop or sit on my hands. Since I love you guys, here’s the macro call for the ATR function and the stop loss. First name your spreadsheet Current_Stock_Holdings.xls (you can change this later) then copy this into the AutoRun Macro box in BulksquoteXL. AverageTrueRange("G1","X");Current_Stock_Holdings.xls!Module1.Stop_loss_ATR;StockChart("OHLC","J1") I use a 20 day time period for my ATR function, as the image above shows. You’ll have substitute “X” in the callout function above for the time period you want. It can be 5, 10, 15, or 50, whatever floats your boat and your needs. Once you’ve done this, then you need to copy and paste in the macro for the stop loss function below. Make sure you save it to your spreadsheet locally. As with the ATR function, you’ll have to edit the X.X that I highlight below to a multiple that you like. It can be 1.5 or 5.5 times the ATR. This will generate wider or tighter stops based on your individual preferences. The smaller the number you input, the tighter the stop you generate. Conversely the larger the number you input, the looser the stop. You can use the Macro Viewer function in TraderXL to import the macro below if you don’t know how to do it manually. Copy and paste the function between the ++++++++’s into a TXT file and then import it. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Sub Stop_loss_ATR() ' ' Stop_loss_ATR Macro ' Macro recorded 12/15/2009 by neuralmarkettrends ' ' Range("H1").Select ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "Stop Loss" Range("H21").Select ActiveCell.FormulaR1C1 = "=(RC[-3]-(RC[-1]*X.X))" Range("H21").Select Selection.NumberFormat = "0.0000" Selection.NumberFormat = "0.000" Selection.NumberFormat = "0.00" Selection.Copy Range("H22:H253").Select ActiveSheet.Paste Application.CutCopyMode = False End Sub +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Just a side note, you might be wondering why I call the stockchart function “StockChart("OHLC","J1").” I do that so I can create a nice candlestick chart next to the downloaded data as eye candy. That’s it, there you have it. Now go cause mischief!
Yeah, the Gold upward trend got busted in my system around December 8, 2009. My stop would've been hit at $1150.53 and since I own some physical gold too, I started debating my exit strategy from that. I'll go long in Gold again when it hits another all time high but for now I'll just sit on my hands.
As part of the development for my S&P500 Volatility Timing Model, I test several data sets and build several tweaked models. What I’m interested in in is finding the “outliers”, also known as the financial asteroids. These represent great opportunities for me because I usually buy either mutual funds, ETF’s, or stocks in our 401k when they happen. In the case of the May 10, 2007 selloff, we were hit by a small financial meteor. Take a look at the posted pic, you’ll can see a green dot which is “out there” from the regular cluster of data points. That was the financial meteor, the outlier! However, based on my model it was a small buying opportunity, nothing to get overly excited about. ...
When I was first introduced to data mining and modeling, I felt like I had found the goose that laid the golden egg. I thought, erroneously, that I could create a predictive model that would be able to tell me what the closing price would be for a specific asset. I successfully modeled the S&P500 Spiders (SPY) and was able to predict the daily closing price within a 3% price range. I soon learned that this only worked well when the market was trending in a one direction. If the market turned on a dime, as it usually does, the model would fall apart. ...
People do dumb things at the heights of trends, like issuing the homebuilders ETF XHB. Shortly after its debut, XHB began to sell off as the negative sentiment snapped the RE buying trend. As I mentioned yesterday, sentiment and fundamentals affect trend and in turn the trend affects sentiment and fundamentals. I believe the pain for XHB and real estate isn’t over but I wouldn’t be a buyer here. Some people with their limit orders at $29 might just get XHB at the price they want, if they wait a bit longer. ...
The Spiders have been on a nice trend upward, thanks to a lot of money chasing too few good assets. One day, when the liquidity dries up, I expect the party to come to an end. In the meantime, I’ll ride the wave up and make some money. :)
Today was a USEC day for me. First I saw it profiled on WallStrip and then it showed up on Google Finance’s top % gainers list. It sure looks like a healthy trending stock as it rises from the lower left corner of the chart to that magical upper right hand corner. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the world needs more energy everyday and with all the fervor about fossil feuls and greenhouse gases, nuclear could be a viable option. The only drawback to nuclear energy is that pesky radioactive waste. So the question you have to ask yourself, do you want to glow or sizzle? ...
Google has been on fire since its IPO a few years back. I was suffering from post Nasdaq bubble syndrome and thought, “no way is GOOG going $400!” Boy was I wrong! What can I say? Google is the new Microsoft.