In my old blog, Digital Breakfast, I posted a few times about my desire to build an Automated Trading System (ATS) using Excel. I figured I’d build it in Excel since I know that software the best and conveniently enough, Interactive Brokers offers an API for Excel. Today, I located my old real time ETF Trend Signal system, which is based on statistical performance measures to generate trend signals, and decided to begin additional back end development on it. ...

** There are NEW livestream videos about RapidMiner! Visit my Channel here ** In Lesson 3, I introduced the Sliding Window Validation operator to test how well we can forecast a trend in a time series. Our initial results are very poor, we were able to forecast the trend with an average accuracy of 55.5%. This is fractionally better than a simple coin flip! In this updated lesson I will introduce the ability of Parameter Optimization in RapidMiner to see if we can forecast the trend better. ...

The Spiders have been on a nice trend upward, thanks to a lot of money chasing too few good assets. One day, when the liquidity dries up, I expect the party to come to an end. In the meantime, I’ll ride the wave up and make some money. :)

There’s something to be said about buying winners. Winners continue to win, and in the case of stocks, they keep making new highs. I know that AAPL is a favorite holding of Howard and his hedge fund’s strategy of finding and investing select stocks making new 52 week all time highs is a smart. The trick is to buy the right company making the high. It’s safe to say that Apple is the right company, its emerged as an innovative powerhouse once again. Steve Jobs and company sure have been busy, first the iPod (and iTunes), a new generation of desktop computers running on Intel chips, and now the iPhone (out soon). People are loving it and buying like crazy. APPL made another 52 week high yesterday. ...

I’m pretty sure a short-term top is in for EURUSD and I’m trapped up there. :) I have four positions open at an average price of $1.36132 and with EURUSD trading around $1.35764, I have a long way to go before I see profits again. Still my neural trend models say to remain long so and I will be adding to this position on severe drips (around $1.3500 and then $1.34700). Its too early to tell if the Australian Dollar’s trend is resuming or if its still consolidating, either way the trend model retains an UP signal for this currency. I don’t regret selling my two AUDUSD positions but I’m mad that I didn’t wait for the mini rally yesterday. Lesson learned, I should always trust my trend model and buy on dips, not on new highs. I have to re-examine my Yen model because it gives me a lot of UP signals in a continuing downward trend. I find it awfully suspect but then again the market forces could be there to make the Yen pop. A stronger Yen will surely rein in the carry trade and help reduce the global liquidity glut. That will in turn firm up our mortgage interest rates push more sub-prime borrowers into bankruptcy or foreclosure. Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practise to deceive! - Sir Walter Scott ...

I wanted to take a moment to recognize C++ Trader and Blogger Jacks, two quant/programming related blogs, I’ve stumbled across in the last few days. I like them so much, I added them to my blogroll. They post topics range from algorithmic trading systems to modeling for market inefficiencies. I feel so inspired by their blogs that I want become a member of their quant club, if they let me in. I promise to bring my own pocket protector and chips. ...

Today was a USEC day for me. First I saw it profiled on WallStrip and then it showed up on Google Finance’s top % gainers list. It sure looks like a healthy trending stock as it rises from the lower left corner of the chart to that magical upper right hand corner. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the world needs more energy everyday and with all the fervor about fossil feuls and greenhouse gases, nuclear could be a viable option. The only drawback to nuclear energy is that pesky radioactive waste. So the question you have to ask yourself, do you want to glow or sizzle? ...

I was curious to see what the blog posting trends were for these three assets and some other topics of interest. It seems like all three are on a steady upward trend, that’s probably because oil and gold are rising in price and all the real estate bloggers are posting “I told you so.” Britney spiked in late Feb, probably because of her head shaving event, Angelina is cruising along. I’m still waiting for Mr. Ugly to spike. Maybe if he shaved his head and adopted a second cat his ratings might increase. :) ...

I heard this first on Bloomberg Radio and then found the article. It’s about the ever increasing use of data mining and AI in the financial markets. In his cubicle overlooking the trading floor, Kearns, 44, consults with Lehman Brothers traders as Ph.D.s tap away at secret software. The programs they’re writing are designed to sift through billions of trades and spot subtle patterns in world markets. Kearns, a computer scientist who has a doctorate from Harvard University, says the code is part of a dream he’s been chasing for more than two decades: to imbue computers with artificial intelligence, or AI. That’s precisely the strength of an AI model, the ability to find and learn subtle patterns and help you find an emerging (or ending) trend. ...

I bought GE for my retirement account because of its dividend payout and my uncanny ability to buy GE products without even knowing it. When it comes to picking stocks for long term appreciation, I like to use good old fundamental analysis. That doesn’t mean I ignore technical factors that affect its price. Silly me, I bought GE at a recent high but I can be patient. Why? Well I’m testing out a new Fundamental Analytic Neural Model that’s telling me GE should be trading around $43.00. ...