Stocks

This is an automated post with AI generated graph for ZS=F seasonal returns. This post gets updated on an irregular basis. The date this post was generated on was: 2025-01-22

This is an automated post with AI generated graph for ZS=F volatility forecast. This post gets updated on an irregular basis. The date this post was generated on was: 2025-01-22

I’ve been busy with work and life lately so I haven’t had a lot of time to write and trade. Yesterday I went long NVDA again because it made a new all-time high. NVDA earnings beat expectations all around and they raised guidance for the next quarter. Then they announced a 10:1 stock split. All signs keep pointing to this stock going higher. My guess and this is only a guess, is that it will reach near $1100 before splitting and then go back to the $300 to $400 range pronto. ...

Talk about great timing on my end, I sold off Boeing (BA) a few weeks ago after the Alaska Air door blew out mid-flight. Now the whistleblower John Barnett was found dead in a parking lot of an apparent self-inflicted wound. Barnett, a Louisiana resident, was then found dead in a car outside a Holiday Inn from what the Charleston County Coroner’s Office ruled was suicide. The Charleston City Police Department is investigating. - via MSN ...

My plan is to stay out of the market today. There was some violent sell off on Friday in the semiconductors. All the stocks and ETFs I follow sold off and there were a lot of shooting starts or bearish engulfing candles. Several of the indices are looking tired too, the S&P500 has a bearish engulfing candle as well. But MSFT is hanging in there, that’s one that I want to bet on for the long term and I might be increasing my long term holdings of it. ...

There are a few rules I follow religiously if I’m focusing on trading a short term horizon. I always sell half when I had an amazing run and let the other half run, and I always reduce risk right befor a stock’s earning call; even if the call is expected to be good. I ended up closing all my NVDA positions on Tuesday. In the case of NVDA’s earnings yesterday, all evidence was pointing to a great earnings call and they delievered. NVDA earnings beat everything forecasted and they gave some strong guidance for the quarter ahead. As I write this post, it’s trading up almost $100 in the pre-market. ...

Here’s one from the “if it has AI inside, it’s going to the moon” file. SMCI hit an all time high yesterday after hitting successive all time highs. It’s going to open probably higher than its close at $880.55 yesterday, but is it still a buy? According to Yahoo Finance it might be: On the other hand, it’s possible that the company is still in the early stages of benefiting from powerful long-term demand tailwinds thanks to AI. With Supermicro valued at roughly $49 billion, the stock could still have big upside potential if artificial intelligence continues to power rapid sales and earnings growth. Shares have become riskier and could be volatile, but the stars could be aligning for the company to continue crushing expectations. ...

It looks like the Generative AI market finally caught up with ARM, or rather the Momentum and Trend Bros got a hold of it. Yes, ARM hit a new all time high and that’s exactly what I want to see after an IPO. ARM IPO’d back in September 2023 and starting a slight upward trend in November. Add in the NVDA craziness and “AI this” and “AI that”, it’s no wonder ARM is going to the moon. ...

David Einhorn, President of Greenlight Capital is whining about the millions of passive investors out there. They’re mucking up his returns! How dare they! (Greenlight) It is no longer going to pay 10 times earnings for a stock expecting earnings to get 15% better and receive a 13-times-earnings multiple allowing Greenlight to make 50% over a year and a half. That’s because with the rise of passive investing, “there’s nobody who is going to pay attention to notice the earnings were 15% better … if nobody notices, nobody’s there, nobody’s going to buy, nobody’s going to care,” Einhorn said. - via Marketwatch ...

I was reading the news this morning about how AMD is getting more investor’s interest as a competitor to NVDA’s GPU chips. This always happens when a momentum/trend darling gets too expensive or too crazy for the smaller boys to handle. NVDA is in squarely in the hands of the big boy gamblers and if you can’t run with them dawgs, you better go find something else to trade. Hello AMD! ...