The chart illustrates the relationship between money market fund assets, the U.S. jobless rate, and recession periods over the past few decades. Historically, sharp increases in money market fund assets (blue line) often coincide with economic uncertainty as investors move towards safer, liquid investments. Simultaneously, the jobless rate (green dashed line) tends to spike during recessions, indicated by the shaded gray areas. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, we observe a surge in money market fund assets and a corresponding rise in unemployment rates. Read more...

Looks like the CPI has been rising steadily until COVID, then it took off at a higher clip. All this is unsustainable but when will the big correction come? I hate to say it but eggs were cheaper under Trump and all through his Presidency. Granted Biden had to deal with the COVID-19 crisis but after four years he couldn’t bring down the price eggs (and food).

The 2-year/10-year spread is what I always look to prepare for a recession. I don’t believe in “soft landings” but I do believe financial chicanery can postpone a recession. With Trump getting back into office he’ll pursue cutting interest rates. That’ll give the economy a jolt in the arm until inflation catches up. So who knows when the recession will happen, but it will. Of course, it’s easy for me to say that a recession will happen after a big Bull Market run, just like it’s easy to say that a Bull Market will happen right after a Bear Market. Read more...

I had a big epiphany in the last half of the year (2024) when I started selling option premium. I mostly sold covered calls and cash-secured puts and focused on the weekly expirations. I’ve been keeping the risk very low and not using any margin. I’ve been assigned 6 times in the last 6 months, 4 for puts and 2 for covered calls. This has caused me to buy 1,000 shares of SMH and 500 of IWM, so it cost me a pretty penny in my trading account. Read more...

Just a quick update on what I’ve been up to lately. First, I got laid off, which pushed me into an early retirement. That’s okay—it’s the perfect opportunity to strike out on my own again. Second, I’ve been diving into the options market and have found it to be quite profitable. I rarely buy calls or puts because, in my view, that’s pure speculative gambling. Instead, I’ve been selling options—primarily cash-secured puts and covered calls. Read more...

Note: The following gold prices forecasting model is v0.4 and price forecasts for Friday’s close during regular US trading days. Price Summary & Forecast Gold closed this week to: $2335.30, from $2412.20 last week. The percent change was -3.19 percent. The gold price forecast for next Friday’s close is: $2338.23. The gold swing price forecast targets are: $2217.37 low, $2474.88 high. Volatility Summary & Forecast Gold volatility closed this week to: $164. Read more...

Note: The following gold to silver ratio forecasting model is v0.4 and price forecasts for Friday’s close during regular US trading days. Price Summary & Forecast Gold To Silver Ratio closed this week to: 76.56, from 77.70 last week. The percent change was -1.46 percent. The price forecast for next Friday’s close is: 85.76. The swing price forecast targets are: 77.64 low, 96.82 high. Gold to Silver Ratio Chart Gold to Silver Ratio Trend Chart Note: A high Gold to Silver ratio typically means that Silver is favored over Gold. Read more...

I’ve been busy with work and life lately so I haven’t had a lot of time to write and trade. Yesterday I went long NVDA again because it made a new all-time high. NVDA earnings beat expectations all around and they raised guidance for the next quarter. Then they announced a 10:1 stock split. All signs keep pointing to this stock going higher. My guess and this is only a guess, is that it will reach near $1100 before splitting and then go back to the $300 to $400 range pronto. Read more...

Note: The following silver prices forecasting model is v0.4 and price forecasts for Friday’s close during regular US trading days. Silver Price Summary & Forecast Silver closed this week to: $30.48, from $31.05 last week. The percent change was -1.83 percent. The silver price forecast for next Friday’s close is: $27.24. The silver swing price forecast targets are: $23.67 low, $30.20 high. Silver Volatility Summary & Forecast Silver price volatility closed this week to: $7. Read more...

Since I live in the woods I get to forest bathe everyday! I do feel completely different living in a forest than I did living in a city. There’s something to be said about this. Forest bathing involves none of those things. “Just be with the trees,” as Ephrat Livni describes the practice, “no hiking, no counting steps on a Fitbit. You can sit or meander, but the point is to relax rather than accomplish anything. Read more...