Weekend Market Report
In this week’s jam-packed newsletter, we discuss Crowdstrike (CRWD), the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), the Fat Whoosh effect, a possible top for NVDA, and some coming changes to the gold and silver price forecasts. As always, if you have any comments, drop me a comment below. Happy hunting.
Crowdstrike Is Getting Added to the S&P500
Remember all that noise about a Crowdstrike server back in 2016? Well, Crowdstrike is a real company that went public in 2019 and now it’s about to be added to the S&P500. On top of that, it’s trading near all-time highs. This is one to watch as the price might “pop” as the indices and mutual funds start buying CRWD.
Tinyletter Was Shutdown by MailChimp, so This Guy Built Letter Drop
I used Tinyletter on this site for years before settling on a good email newsletter. Many people got frustrated with MailChimp (Intuit) for shutting it down.
Here’s a neat repository on how to build your own TinyLetter called LetterDrop.
i365dev
The Fat Whoosh Effect
A Reddit discussion on The Whoosh Effect for those Keto people.
Good article overall, but when it refers to a “cheat” meal to break a stall, it’s best to take that to mean a higher calorie meal rather than a higher carb one.
Moreover, even if your long-term goal is weight loss, eating at maintenance calories every once in a while can be good for the soul anyway. At least, I’ve found that past a certain point slower weight loss is happier weight loss.
The original link on Reddit discussion is dead but found it via Internet Archive
General Market Commentary
This was a fun week in the markets. For the most part, all the indices including the Russell 2oo0, closed higher. That said, the Nasdaq was the only one that barely closed higher this week because tech stocks got hammered. The chatter in the market is wondering if NVDA peaked?
Was Jensen signing a woman’s breast the top for this tech stock?
It’s interesting to read the commentary on StockTwits for NVDA, it’s a free-for-all of Bull and Bear cases. Some believe the stock is consolidating before another run higher and others think the boob signing is the top.
The reality is, we don’t know. So what should you do? Keep your stops not too tight and not too loose. How’s that for an answer?
Gold and Silver Price Forecasts 1 Week Ahead
Gold and Silver had another volatile week but closed higher from the week before. Forecasts for the metals is mixed for the next week with forecasts for a month ahead looking flat to lower.
Right now the forecast model for both metals is directionally correct 67% of the time. I will continue to update how well it does with each weekend market report.
The price forecasts for gold and silver are below the fold as well a discussion on why I built these models. Plus I write about IWM too! This stuff is below the fold and you’ll need to sign up for a FREE membership if you want to read further. Thanks!
Silver Price Forecast
Silver closed at $29.57 this week from $29.40 last week, a rise of +0.57%. Last week’s price prediction for a higher Silver close was correct. The model is currently correct for price direction 67% (2 out of 3).
The mean silver price forecast for next week is $28.42, lower than this week’s close. We are forecasting a possible swing high price of $31.89 and a swing low of $25.08 for next week.
Gold Prices Forecast
Gold closed down to $2,316.40 from$2,331.39 last week, a drop of -1.00% Last week’s price prediction for a lower close was correct. The model is currently correct for price direction 67% (2 out of 3).
The mean forecast for the Gold prices next week is lower to $2,264.60. A swing high price of $2,473.54 and a low of $2,056.64 is forecasted.
A Note About the Gold and Silver Forecasts
One of the key things I need to be clear about when making these price forecasts is that trying to predict an actual number for Gold and Silver prices is quite foolhardy. The reality is no one knows where the price in itself will end up. That said, there is some “stickiness” in trends, economic cycles, and policy.
Predicting the direction of prices is easier and in several cases, you could be correct 6 out of 10 times (60%). That’s an edge, a slight one but one nonetheless. This is why I also publish the swing high and low prices, where prices could end up if the markets change - and they always change.
Additionally, if you inspect the charts I publish, they’ll have a 4 week forecast line. I don’t publish the 4 week forecasts but the line indicates the forecast price direction with less confidence. It’s a way to tell what the model things might happen beyond the 1 week forecast horizon.
Why do I do these forecasts? The simple answer is because I’m a coin collector. There are times when I want to know if I should buy an American Silver or Gold Eagle and other times when I should wait. I built this model to help me decide when to buy and and when to sell. That’s it, purely for my own greed needs.
Going forward I will NOT be providing the mean price forecasts but only make directional forecasts for Gold and Silver prices 1 week out. I will continue to publish the swing high and low price forecasts though because they give an area where the prices could end up.
A Look at Iwm
If I scanned through my archives, I’ll find a lot of commentary on ETFs. I’ve always like ETFs because they act like diversified mutual funds and tradable stocks at the same time. While I do own individual stocks to push my yearly returns higher, I like to settle on ETFs for longer term holdings.
Today I’d like to look at the IWM ETF, also known as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF.
I started tracking this ETF when it came out in 2007. It first showed up in the markets around January 2007 and I noticed it in May 2007. From a long term perspective, this is a winning ETF. It’s price action has been steadily marching from the lower left to the upper right.
It peaked toward the end of 2022 before easing back below the $200 level. Today it’s trading just at the $200 level.
What does IWM do? From it’s summary the ETF does the following:
The fund generally invests at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index (i.e., depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index) and may invest up to 20% of its assets in certain futures, options and swap contracts, cash and cash equivalents.
IWM is nothing more than a mimic of the Russell 2000, the small cap index. Small cap stocks are a wonderful way to outsize your returns when they’re strong, but this year? They’re not so strong. The ETF is up less that 1% for the year and they’re nowhere near their all-time high.
So why bother with it at all? The simple answer is to keep a lazy eye on it. Indices are a different animal than just a regular stock, they tend to go in cycles, and this might be a good one to buy in the future for a long term portfolio.
While I love to trend trade and buy all-time highs, there are other market strategies to use to build wealth. The question is, do we want to get rich or wealthy? Two different ends with two different means to get there.
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